{"id":260082,"date":"2024-06-13T15:46:35","date_gmt":"2024-06-13T12:46:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kahawatungu.com\/?p=260082"},"modified":"2024-06-13T15:46:35","modified_gmt":"2024-06-13T12:46:35","slug":"does-ceasefire-in-gaza-mean-israeli-escalation-with-lebanons-hezbollah","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kahawatungu.com\/does-ceasefire-in-gaza-mean-israeli-escalation-with-lebanons-hezbollah\/","title":{"rendered":"Does ceasefire in Gaza mean Israeli escalation with Lebanon\u2019s Hezbollah?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Hezbollah fires more than 200 missiles and rockets across its southern border in one of its heaviest attacks on northern Israel since the 2006 war.<\/p>\n<p>The day before,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2024\/6\/12\/hezbollah-rains-rockets-on-israel-after-senior-commander-killed\">Israel had assassinated Taleb Abdullah<\/a>, the most senior Hezbollah commander killed since October 8.<\/p>\n<p>What happened Wednesday and Tuesday is the latest\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/features\/2024\/6\/7\/explainer-are-lebanon-and-israel-on-the-cusp-of-war\">intensification of hostilities<\/a>\u00a0between Israel and Lebanon, as negotiations for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas seem to be coming to a head.<\/p>\n<p>Israel has killed more than 37,000 Palestinians in Gaza since October 7, the day Hamas led an attack on Israel, killing 1,139 people and capturing some 240.<\/p>\n<p>Israel faces genocide charges for its actions in Gaza in a case brought to the International Criminal of Justice by South Africa.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_68_1 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title ez-toc-toggle\" style=\"cursor: pointer\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 eztoc-toggle-hide-by-default' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/kahawatungu.com\/does-ceasefire-in-gaza-mean-israeli-escalation-with-lebanons-hezbollah\/#Is_there_a_connection\" title=\"Is there a connection?\">Is there a connection?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/kahawatungu.com\/does-ceasefire-in-gaza-mean-israeli-escalation-with-lebanons-hezbollah\/#Israeli_war_hawks\" title=\"Israeli war hawks\">Israeli war hawks<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/kahawatungu.com\/does-ceasefire-in-gaza-mean-israeli-escalation-with-lebanons-hezbollah\/#Negative_consequences\" title=\"Negative consequences\">Negative consequences<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 id=\"is-there-a-connection\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Is_there_a_connection\"><\/span>Is there a connection?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Analysts told Al Jazeera a Gaza ceasefire could shift Israel\u2019s military focus to Lebanon, where it has exchanged attacks with Hezbollah since the day after Ocotber 7.<\/p>\n<p>The exchanges across Lebanon\u2019s southern border are not exactly tit-for-tat.<\/p>\n<p>Al Jazeera found in an\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/longform\/2024\/4\/15\/mapping-israel-lebanon-cross-border-attacks\">April investigation<\/a>\u00a0that Israel had launched more than five attacks on Lebanon for every attack from Hezbollah.<\/p>\n<p>Israel has killed about 300 Hezbollah members and more than 70 civilians during this time, while Israel says it has lost about 15 soldiers and 10 civilians.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"israeli-war-hawks\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Israeli_war_hawks\"><\/span>Israeli war hawks<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>While tensions are increasing along the border, analysts believe Israel would struggle to widen the war on Lebanon without first a ceasefire in Gaza.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Also Read:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/kahawatungu.com\/south-africa-reports-second-mpox-death-this-week\/\">South Africa reports second mpox death this week<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe Israelis will not enlarge their fight with Lebanon as long as there is [still] one single shot in Gaza,\u201d Tannous Mouawad, a retired brigadier general in the Lebanese army, told Al Jazeera. \u201cWhen [a ceasefire is achieved in] Gaza, the Israelis will definitely turn towards Lebanon.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The Israeli government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is under domestic pressure tas the school year approaches and more than 90,000 people remain displaced from their homes in northern Israel.<\/p>\n<p>Politicians say Hezbollah needs to be pushed back from the border before civilians can safely return \u2013 although many have reportedly decided not to come back.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2024\/6\/5\/netanyahu-says-israel-prepared-for-very-intense-operation-near-lebanon\">Netanyahu said<\/a>\u00a0last week that Israel is \u201cprepared for a very intense operation\u201d on the border with Lebanon.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAn opinion poll published by [Israeli newspaper] Maariv \u2026 showed [that] over 70 percent of Israelis want to do away with Hezbollah,\u201d Karim Emile Bitar, professor of international relations at Saint Joseph\u2019s University in Beirut, told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSeveral members of the [Israeli] war cabinet also share this hawkish position.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe are approaching the point where a decision will have to be made, and the [Israeli military] is prepared and very ready for this decision,\u201d chief of staff of Israel\u2019s army, Herzi Halevi, told military officials in early June.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"negative-consequences\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Negative_consequences\"><\/span>Negative consequences<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>A push for war against Hezbollah and Lebanon does not mean an assured victory for Israel.<\/p>\n<p>Bitar said any war would be \u201cextraordinarily counterproductive\u201d and could inflict heavy suffering on both the Lebanese and Israelis.<\/p>\n<p>\u201c[It will not be] a walk in the park [for Israel],\u201d he added. \u201cThe idea that they could occupy south Lebanon shows that they have learned nothing from Israeli history.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Israel invaded south Lebanon in 1978 and 1982 during the country\u2019s civil war, aiming to push out Palestinian groups.<\/p>\n<p>Hezbollah itself, a Lebanese Shia group with close ties to Iran, was formed in 1982 in response to Israel\u2019s invasion.<\/p>\n<p>Israel also occupied south Lebanon from 1985 until 2000, after Hezbollah and other Lebanese forces pushed Israeli troops back across the border.<\/p>\n<p>An invasion would likely give Israel \u201cmuch more than it bargained for\u201d Bitar said.<\/p>\n<p>Today, Hezbollah is generally believed to be the world\u2019s strongest non-state actor, which means its military capabilities are significantly stronger than those of Hamas.<\/p>\n<p>Until now, it has largely struck military targets near the north of Israel but, analysts say, it striking military targets in areas like Tel Aviv, which is surrounded by civilian infrastructure, would be more problematic for Israel.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere\u2019s [already] a rift in Israel itself with northern settlers furious at the government,\u201d Amal Saad, author of the book Hizbu\u2019llah Politics and Religion, told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n<p>Raining rockets down on a populated city could be a way \u201cto deepen preexisting divides and showcase what the rest of Israel can look like,\u201d she said. \u201cIsrael cannot tolerate a fraction of what Gaza or Lebanon can.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In recent weeks, Hezbollah has also used new weapons not previously utilised on the battlefield, including anti-aircraft missiles, which it claimed forced Israeli fighter jets to retreat.<\/p>\n<p>This move was \u201csymbolic\u201d, according to Saad, because it \u201cchallenged Israeli\u2019s aerial supremacy\u201d. Hezbollah has also downed a number of Israeli drones in recent weeks.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, a wider war in Lebanon could come with serious consequences for both Israel and Lebanon.<\/p>\n<p>US officials have warned that an escalation against Hezbollah could draw in Iran and other allied forces in the region.<\/p>\n<p>And Lebanon, with its collapsed economy, would surely be left in an even worse state.\u00a0A war would bring \u201cextra large destruction by Israel on Lebanon\u201d, said Mouawad, the retired brigadier general.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cLebanon cannot afford its consequences.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>By Agencies.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hezbollah fires more than 200 missiles and rockets across its southern border in one of its heaviest attacks on northern Israel since the 2006 war. The day before,\u00a0Israel had assassinated Taleb Abdullah, the most senior Hezbollah commander killed since October 8. What happened Wednesday and Tuesday is the latest\u00a0intensification of hostilities\u00a0between Israel and Lebanon, as<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":138,"featured_media":260083,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[49426],"tags":[60160,49117,99],"class_list":{"0":"post-260082","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-worldnews","8":"tag-gaza","9":"tag-lebanon","10":"tag-south-africa"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v20.6 (Yoast SEO v21.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Does ceasefire in Gaza mean Israeli escalation with Lebanon\u2019s Hezbollah? - KahawaTungu<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"KahawaTungu Does ceasefire in Gaza mean Israeli escalation with Lebanon\u2019s Hezbollah? 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